RESIDENTIAL SUPPLY: HANDOVERS IN LINE WITH FORECAST FOR 2026
Nearly 12,900 units were delivered in Q3 2026, taking completions for the first nine months of the year to c. 40,400 units. Key handovers included The Edge by Select Group in Business Bay (1,030 units), Ghost by Binghatti in Al Jadaf, Opal Gardens by Meydan Developments in District Eleven, Alaya by Majid Al Futtaim in Tilal Al Ghafand Lillia at The Valley by Emaar Properties. With a further 10,500 units expected in Q4 2026, full-year deliveries are expected to reach 50,900 units, around 9% above 2025. However, contractor capacity and supply chain constraints have lowered realisation rates and pushed some handovers into 2027, when c. 60,000 units are currently scheduled. Further delays are likely if these constraints persist. Launch activity has fallen sharply by 67%, as developers phase new releases to align supply with current demand. Notable launches included Dubai Creek Gardens by Global Partners Group in Dubai Healthcare City Phase 2 (1,400 units) and Shahrukhz2 by Danube in Dubai Maritime City (1,126 units).
SALES PRICES: PRICES STABILISE AFTER Q2 CORRECTION WHILE TRANSACTION ACTIVITY SLOWS
City-wide sale prices remained broadly flat in Q3 2026 at AED 1,847 per sqft, down by less than 1% QoQ and around 1% YoY. Prices are now around 5% below their February 2026 peak. Apartments continued to soften across most major submarkets, while villas were more mixed, with prime and established communities holding up better. The bigger shift has been in transaction volumes. Off-plan transactions in Q3 2026 were 71% lower YoY, reflecting slower launch activity and more cautious investor sentiment. The secondary market has performed up comparatively better, with volumes down 33% YoY, supported by end-user demand for ready homes. Looking ahead, prices are expected to remain under pressure as transaction volumes stay subdued, the gap between buyer and seller price expectations persists, and new supply enters the market. Established end-user communities are expected to remain comparatively resilient.
RENTS: RENTS EASE FURTHER, BUT LEASING ACTIVITY PICKS UP
Average rents fell 4.5% QoQ and 7% YoY in Q3 2026. Rents declined across all major apartment submarkets, while villa rents recorded mixed performance. Despite softer rents, leasing activity strengthened in Q3 2026. New rental contracts rose 32% QoQ and 12% YoY, supported by relocations ahead of the new school year, while renewals increased 8% QoQ and remained broadly unchanged YoY. The increase in new leasing activity reflects existing tenants relocating or upgrading, new tenants entering the market and potential buyers continuing to rent as they adopt a wait-and-see approach to purchasing. Underlying demand remains firm, with tenants benefiting from greater choice and improved affordability. Looking ahead, rents are expected to soften further as new supply is handed over, providing tenants with more options and greater negotiating power.
